Dangerous Fronts Between India and Pakistan

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the writer.

India and Pakistan – two nuclear powers – were close to full-scale war after the terrorist attack in Kashmir in April 2025. A fragile ceasefire has calmed war rhetoric, but the dispute over Kashmir is only a small part of the conflict between the countries. Behind it lie larger unresolved issues related to access to water and a great power rivalry.

This most recent conflict began in Kashmir on April 22, a region that has been divided and disputed since the establishment of India and Pakistan in 1947. It has seen increased resistance after India in 2019 reduced the autonomy of the part of Kashmir it administers. In April, after the killing of 26 tourists, India blamed a Pakistan-backed militant group, The Resistance Front (TRF), triggering a massive military buildup on both sides and a gradual increase in military attacks.

Civilians in Kashmir were particularly hard hit. Media in both countries followed this up by publishing increased war rhetoric and mutual accusations of supporting terrorist groups, eventually also spreading fake news about their own victories and the opponent’s losses.

A temporary ceasefire was eventually put in place after international appeals, including from China and the USA. As a gesture of thanks for President Trump's role in helping establish the ceasefire, Pakistan has announced that it will formally nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. This happened after Trump had a meeting with Pakistan’s military and intelligence chief just before the recent bombings of Iran’s nuclear facilities began.

The Bigger Issues

In the shadow of the Kashmir conflict, a larger conflict between India and Pakistan is emerging. Several actions appear to have been planned long in advance, particularly India’s revocation of a water-sharing agreement with Pakistan from 1960 – the Indus Water Treaty and their efforts to weaken Pakistan’s economy.

First came threats to block river flows, and then India’s Prime Minister Modi escalated rhetoric, saying Pakistan should not receive any water that rightfully belongs to India. However, what India failed to achieve on the international arena was blocking a much-needed loan to Pakistan from the International Monetary Fund.

The conflict also tested the loyalty and support of China and the USA, and their positioning in the region. While China and Pakistan maintain close diplomatic and military cooperation, China has an ongoing border conflict with India. Alongside this India shares a common interest with the USA in curbing China’s growing global influence.

Weapon and Border Testing

After the terror attack in Kashmir, India promised to retaliate, and Pakistan denied any involvement. As rhetoric intensified, cross-border shooting began in Kashmir, resulting in civilian casualties. The situation escalated when India announced “Operation Sindoor” and attacked military targets in Pakistan including in Rawalpindi, the twin city of the capital Islamabad, using rockets and drones.

Pakistan then claimed to have shot down Indian aircraft and to have carried out attacks inside India, which in turn claimed to have inflicted significant losses on Pakistan.

Pakistan primarily used Chinese weapons and aircraft, while India used Russian and Western-produced equipment – including French planes. What started as a local conflict became a testing ground and showcase for weapons, especially Chinese ones, and thereby part of the international arms race.

Media War

Media in both countries ran campaigns promoting their own victories. In India, AI-generated videos of fictional military operations against Pakistani cities appeared and were praised on social media. Both countries claim in respective media outlets to have won the military conflict and inflicted heavy losses on the opponent.

Due to a high degree of media monopoly, low press freedom, and the maintenance of a historic enemy image there is little room in either country for alternative perspectives or calls to de-escalate. The conflict is also exploited for domestic political purposes. In Pakistan, authorities accuse India of financing opposition to the government, including what Pakistan define as terrorist groups. Opposition groups in Balochistani are referred to as Fitna al Hindustan, perpetuating the image of the ‘enemy’, but it is unclear whether this also includes civilian opposition.

The Dangerous Water Conflict

In the long run, the termination of the agreement on a shared water system may prove most destructive. Water from the Indus River is fundamental to agriculture and livelihoods in both countries. It is by far the most important river system for Pakistan’s agricultural production and water supply. It is also vital for agriculture in northwestern India, which already faces a water deficit. Both countries have built dams to exploit and regulate the flow of water across borders, but Pakistan appears most vulnerable, as much of the water flows through Indian territory.

While India and Pakistan maintain contact regarding a solution to the armed conflict – and President Trump has again promised to resolve the Kashmir issue – the escalating water conflict needs greater international attention. Otherwise, it may reignite a wider regional conflict.

This piece was first published in Panorama in Norwegian.

This was translated by Arne Strand, Åse Roti Dahl and Josh Franklin-Mann with the assistance of AI translation tools.