Maghreb Machrek No. 218

The Syrian revolt has over the past three years escalated into a massive humanitarian crisis with regional implications. The crisis is consistent with (global) panel data surveys demonstrating the robust link between violence and displacement. With no diplomatic or military solution in sight the civil war will continue. The refugee crises will therefore expand too, with Lebanon a favoured destination for many due the privileged access afforded to Syrian nationals. If the Assad regime is defeated, a new refugee crisis will fan out across the region with dire consequences for regional stability.