Summary

This brief summarizes findings from a long-term randomized controlled trial in Ethiopia that examined how access to factory jobs influences fertility trajectories. The study followed 1,464 married women who applied for jobs in 27 garment and shoe factories located across five industrializing regions. Eligible applicants were screened by firms, after which partnered women were randomly assigned either to receive a job offer or to remain in a control group. Researchers tracked these women for eight to nine years, achieving a 76 percent re-contact rate at endline through an intensive follow-up strategy. The study collected detailed data on fertility histories, employment, income, savings, marriage and household decision-making, and mobility. The factory jobs themselves involved long hours, repetitive tasks, and minimal flexibility, and many applicants reported difficulty reconciling such positions with childcare responsibilities.

Main content

The central finding is that access to a formal wage job increased fertility over the long run. Women who were offered employment had more children than those who were not, amounting to a roughly five percent rise in total births. Childlessness declined substantially, and among women who were childless at baseline, the likelihood of becoming a mother increased by fifteen percentage points. These findings directly contradict the conventional expectation that wage employment suppresses fertility.

Importantly, the fertility response did not appear immediately. During the first three years—when employment differences between treatment and control women were largest—the study found no divergence in birth rates. Instead, fertility increased only after treated women had largely exited factory jobs, by which time employment rates across groups had converged. This temporal pattern suggests that women postponed childbearing while working in factory jobs due to binding time constraints, but subsequently increased fertility once they had accrued income and savings and no longer faced the rigid work schedules characteristic of manufacturing. The sequential nature of this response is consistent with households delaying births until they reach a minimum level of financial security, particularly for the first child.

The study found no evidence that the fertility increase stemmed from changes in marital status, partner switching, fertility preferences, or bargaining power within the household. Women's desired number of children, views on ideal timing, and perceptions of decision-making authority did not differ between treatment and control groups. Marriage rates and partner continuity were also unaffected, as were migration patterns and child survival. These results help rule out many common explanations for fertility change and underscore that the increased fertility is a response to the job and increased income, rather than other factors.

Conclusions

We find that women who received job offers accumulated more savings and had higher household income both during and after the period of factory employment. These gains persisted even after most women exited wage jobs, suggesting that the additional resources enhanced household economic security in ways that enabled families to realize their pre-existing fertility goals. In this sense, the long-term income effect ultimately outweighed the short-term opportunity cost of time associated with factory work.

The findings carry significant implications for policymakers in Ethiopia and across Sub-Saharan Africa. First, they caution against the expectation that industrialization—through the expansion of formal wage jobs for women—will automatically accelerate fertility decline. In this setting, formal employment raised fertility instead of reducing it, and did so precisely because women combined short periods of intense work with later increases in household resources. Second, the study highlights the importance constraints for disadvantaged families. Factory jobs in Ethiopia are difficult to combine with pregnancy and newborn care, prompting postponement but not prevention of childbearing. Policymakers aiming to influence women's labor supply and family formation patterns may therefore need to consider complementary measures, such as improving access to childcare or designing employment policies that better accommodate family responsibilities.

More broadly, the results suggest that fertility and employment decisions unfold as sequential rather than simultaneous choices, particularly in environments where formal jobs are scarce, inflexible, and physically demanding. As Ethiopia and other African economies continue to industrialize, this research demonstrates that the demographic consequences of such transitions are more complex than often assumed. Rather than reducing fertility, formal employment opportunities may enhance families' ability to achieve the number of children they already desire, especially when supported by higher and more stable income. Understanding this dynamic is essential for designing integrated labor, gender, and population policies in the region.

When developing policies:

1. Design family-compatible industrial jobs

Improve flexibility, maternity protection, and working conditions so women can combine formal employment with pregnancy and early childcare.

2. Expand affordable childcare near workplaces

Invest in accessible childcare services around industrial zones to reduce time constraints that force women to postpone or exit employment.

3. Rethink fertility assumptions in policy planning

Avoid assuming female employment automatically reduces fertility when designing labor, population, and development strategies.

4. Support women’s income and savings accumulation

Strengthen financial inclusion, wage stability, and savings mechanisms that help households achieve planned family goals.

5. Reintegrate labor, gender, and population policies

Coordinate employment and family policies to reflect sequential decisions between work, income accumulation, and childbearing.