Hizbollah – farewell to arms?

The views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CMI. 

Israel’s attack on Hizbollah’s headquarters in Beirut is a new example of the “Dahiyeh doctrine”, named after the neighborhood controlled by Hizbollah. The aim is to crush the organization and eliminate its leaders. In Gaza, this strategy was used to remove Hamas. Now it has returned to Lebanon.

For the first time, Israel has issued an evacuation order for parts of Beirut. These districts are home not only to Shiites, but also to many Palestinian refugees and, since 2012, thousands of Syrian refugees. More than 800,00 have sought refuge in shelters, schools, and empty houses; others are sleeping outdoors along the seaside promenade, and some are also accommodated in hotels that have also become bombing targets. Israel’s military leadership says that the bombing of Beirut will continue until Hizbollah is disarmed.

Kept the weapons
Unlike other militia groups, Hizbollah retained its weapons after the civil war (1975–90) with support from Syria, and subsequently built up an extensive defense system in southern Lebanon with support from Iran. In southern Lebanon, the villages lie like pearls on a string along the border with Israel. While Christian villages are being depopulated, many Shiites remain in the war zone as pieces in Hizbollah’s resistance struggle. As part of the urbanization in the 1960s, many Shiites moved to southern Beirut (“Dahiyeh”), then a predominantly Christian district that gradually became Hizbollah’s power base and headquarters. In the 2006 “July War”, Israel bombed the neighborhood to ruins, but it was rebuilt in record time with financial support from Iran, “bigger and more beautiful” than before. The image of blasé youth sightseeing among the ruins was chosen as the World Press Photo of the Year.

Crisis and new war
Since 2019, Lebanon has been in a continuous economic and political crisis, with large popular demonstrations, and for the first time with open criticism of Hizbollah. In 2024, Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed during Israel’s bombing of Beirut, and many Shiite villages were reduced to rubble. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is a multi-confessional army in a deeply divided country. The army lacks both an air force and a navy, even though the country has received Western financial and military support to balance Hizbollah’s role. The army has never been involved in war with neighboring countries, and operates within a complex coordination with Hizbollah and UNIFIL, the international UN force. UNIFIL has monitored the border between Israel and Lebanon since 1978, but without being able to prevent Hizbollah’s military buildup.

Disarmament of Hizbollah
Hizbollah is weakened, but the militia is nevertheless militarily superior to the army. There is also fear that the army could disintegrate along religious lines in a conflict with Hizbollah. President Joseph Aoun has condemned Hizbollah’s attacks and demanded that the organization be disarmed, including through direct talks with Israel. The army has already confiscated thousands of rockets and missiles and arrested individual members in line with the government’s four-point plan. Hizbollah has condemned disarmament as an American plan to weaken the country’s defense, with its weapons serving as a security guarantee. The use of military force to disarm Hizbollah is impossible, just as a continuation of Hizbollah’s military role is also impossible; both threaten to destroy the country, where tensions are now at a breaking point. It is therefore uncertain whether Hizbollah will have to say farewell to its arms.

This CMI blog post is written by Are J. Knudsen, research professor at CMI.