Ethiopia’s “Inclusive Autocracy”: Crumbling or Transforming?

This chapter analyzes the introduction of decentralization 
reforms in Africa from the early 1990s, with a particular focus 
on Ethiopia. Decentralization is often seen as part of “the third 
wave of democratization” (Connerley et al. 2010; Hartmann and 
Crawford 2008; Manor 1999). This chapter argues, however, 
that political decentralization should not be confused with 
democratization but should instead be seen as closely attached 
to autocratization (O’Neill 2003; Schedler 2013; Dickovick 
and Wunsch 2014; Smoke 2015). In sub-Saharan Africa, the 
most extensive decentralization reforms have been carried out 
in dominant-party states (Riedl and Dickovick 2014), in postconflict states that have gone through a clear break with the past 
(Aalen and Muriaas 2015), as a part of consolidating autocratic 
control. This is also the case with Ethiopia, which introduced an 
ethnic-based federalized and decentralized system after the fall 
of the Derg regime, the one-sided victory of the Tigray People’s 
Liberation Front (TPLF), and the establishment of dominantparty rule by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic 
Front (EPRDF) in 1991. By combining mass participation in local 
government with centralized party control, it is described as 
an inclusive autocracy, similar to the Ugandan political system 
under Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) 
(Aalen and Muriaas 2018). It is important to note that inclusion 
here is only a matter of numbers and not real influence; while 
a high number of people are co-opted into the local party and 
governance structures, their ability to influence decision-making 
is undermined by the power of the centralized ruling party.