The $200 barrel shock: Protecting Sudan's displaced and host communities amid global energy insecurity

As global oil prices threaten to rise above $100 a barrel because of the conflict in the Middle East, the world's most vulnerable populations face the heaviest burdens. For Sudan, a country already devastated by war, large‑scale displacement, and economic challenges, higher fuel costs are a direct threat to survival.

Over 9 million internally displaced persons, 3.5 million returnees, and nearly one million refugees now confront a quadruple crisis: soaring fuel costs, destroyed infrastructure, disrupted supply chains, and diminishing humanitarian aid. Each litre of diesel now equals an entire family’s daily food budget; each delayed shipment of wheat or medicine pushes struggling communities closer to famine. This blog explores how Sudan's displaced families and struggling economy are being crushed by a crisis beyond their control, and what pathways might offer hope amidst the ruins.

The "Quadruple Tax": Sudan's oil shock struggles

The Middle East crisis has had immediate implications for global energy markets. Iran has warned the world to prepare for $200 oil following attacks on commercial vessels, while the US president openly celebrates higher prices as "a boon for our country". But what about countries that lack the capacity to choose between profiting from the crisis or absorbing its impact? These are the nations that exist in the "grey zone" of the global economy, where war, displacement, and institutional collapse are the norm rather than the exception. Sudan, sadly, is the perfect example of this category. While major producers draw on strategic reserves and strong currencies, and large consumers diversify energy sources and subsidise domestic fuel, Sudan's displaced families are now paying the ultimate price for a war they did not start.

Sudan is severely impacted by rising fuel costs through a "quadruple tax" affecting its already fragile economy: a) the internal war tax: The destruction of the Al-Jaili refinery in Khartoum, which met over 40% of domestic fuel needs, has left Sudan heavily reliant on costly imported fuel, draining scarce foreign currency. b) the global fluctuations tax: Rising global oil prices, driven by regional tensions, hit Sudan particularly hard as it lacks buffers like subsidies. Every dollar increase in oil translates directly to higher prices for essential goods and services. c) the supply chains tax: Regional conflicts have disrupted shipping routes through the Red Sea, extending delivery times from 30 to 55 days, raising costs and complicating logistics for essential imports. And d) the humanitarian aid tax: Rising operational costs for aid organisations diminish the purchasing power of humanitarian assistance, forcing them to reduce services for millions reliant on aid.

Every dollar increase in oil translates directly to higher prices for essential goods and services.

These factors create a vicious cycle, as war damages infrastructure, skyrocketing prices make imports unaffordable, supply chains slow delivery, and humanitarian efforts falter. Statements from the World Food Programme highlight the immense scale of the disruption. “Under normal circumstances, we purchase food from India, ship it to Salalah, then to Jeddah, and from there to Port Sudan,” explains a WFP official named Bauer, “Now, because of the crisis, the same shipments take a much longer route. This adds an extra 9,000 kilometres, which is equivalent to travelling coast to coast across the United States and back, adding about 25 days to shipping times”. Sudan faces the oil shock from multiple angles, with devastating consequences for an already vulnerable population.

Towards the breaking point
As of March 2026, Sudan remains the site of the world's largest displacement crisis. The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) peaked at approximately 11.6 million in January 2025. A global oil price surge from $100 to $150 or maybe $200 per barrel would make even basic survival mathematically impossible for millions of them.

For the country’s more than 9 million internally displaced people (9,139,309 IDPs as of December 31 2025 according to the IOM Displacements Tracking Matrix), higher transport costs will severely restrict their ability to move, effectively determining whether they remain entirely trapped in temporary shelters. A family's journey home that today costs 200,000 SDG today could easily increase to 400,000 SDG. A surge will also inevitably reduce the value of cash assistance - a grant intended to cover a month's food may only last two weeks as transport-driven inflation inflates market prices - and undermine essential services in camps as fuel‑powered water systems and medical equipment become unaffordable. Those attempting to return home and rebuild would also see their progress stall: farming will no longer be economically possible due to soaring diesel costs, and reconstruction efforts will slow as transporting materials become too expensive. But higher fuel prices also risk putting an added strain on the social fabric itself: Families who have welcomed refugees into their homes will find that the increased costs of water and food are unsustainable.

A family's journey home that today costs 200,000 SDG today could easily increase to 400,000 SDG.

This economic pressure will inevitably foster social friction and undermine the longstanding Sudanese tradition of hospitality. Moreover, those who lifted the heaviest humanitarian wait are Sudanese expatriates in the Gulf countries who are themselves threatened now. It may also affect the informal border trade that is a lifeline for thousands of people. Finally, it may turn out to be lethal for the people who aim to leave Sudan altogether as smugglers start packing more people into fewer, poorly maintained vehicles to save fuel, increasing the likelihood of fatal accidents and leaving individuals stranded and vulnerable to traffickers in remote areas.

A route to resilience
Addressing the impact of the oil shock on Sudan requires national measures and humanitarian support, as well as community initiatives. At the national level, it is essential to stabilise fuel prices for critical sectors, such as hospitals and water pumps. Additionally, a shock fund should be established using revenues from gold and mining, and the Al-Jaili refinery should undergo partial rehabilitation. Investments in solar energy should also be prioritised, along with negotiations to establish alternative land-based supply routes to the Red Sea.

On the humanitarian front, cash assistance should be linked to fuel price indices, and fuel should be strategically stored in multiple locations to protect against targeting. Mobile solar power units need to be distributed to service centres in remote and border areas. Furthermore, a global fund for fragile states should be advocated to address energy shocks.

At the community level, collective transport cooperatives, local barter systems, and contract farming can be established to facilitate fuel exchange for crop quotas. Supporting alternative energy programs in border areas and creating strategic fuel and food reserves are vital to protecting the most vulnerable communities. These integrated interventions form a roadmap aimed at safeguarding the most at-risk groups, ensuring the continuity of essential services, and building resilience to future shocks at both national and community levels.

A call for global action
Sudan’s suffering is not an isolated incident; it shows how dramatically fragile states are affected if oil shocks continue without international safety nets. As the largest operation of the World Food Programme (WFP), Sudan also highlights the immense disruption that geopolitical crises cause to humanitarian supply chains. It is imperative that the international community:

• Recognizes fragile states as a distinct category in global energy policies and gives them preferential treatment in supply chains.
• Establishes a rapid response mechanism to address fuel shocks in humanitarian contexts, similar to existing funds for epidemics and natural disasters.
• Pressures conflicting parties to ensure the protection of humanitarian corridors and the unimpeded flow of aid.
• Allocates a special support package for the most vulnerable border communities, which includes direct aid for fuel, food, and logistical assistance.

The next oil shock may cut off the lifeline for millions of innocent people who are guilty of nothing other than living on the wrong side of the global energy divide. While major powers compete for Earth's resources, it is the displaced individuals in Darfur, the returnees struggling to rebuild in Khartoum and Gezira, and the Eritrean, Ethiopian, and South Sudanese refugees in camps in Kassala, Gedaref, and White Nile who are paying the highest price. Amid the political struggles between Tehran and Washington-Tel Aviv, one question remains: Does the world have a conscience?

This Sudanese Perspectives blog post is written by Adam Babekir, University of Gedaref. 

The views expressed in this post are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the SNAC project or CMI.